With the start of CDs, a new media was found that was finally able to kill off the cassette tape and the record. It close to the same way the Beta video system, by many account superior to the the VHS system, died off to the VHS. VHS ran from the late 1980's strong into the the turn of the century, but with CD's not only taking music, it did not take long for the DVD to arrive on the scene and take out VHS.
From around 2000 forward media has seen the advance of the DVD into the realm of Blu-Rays. Like any technology, it created hi end players and movies out of the price rage of the casual buyer. But now we have found that Blu-Rays are usually only a few dollars more than the DVD. Often the Blu-Ray offers features and extras not found on the DVD making it an attractive alternative. But the Blu-Ray dominance, only now starting to take hold with the comparison of the prices and cost of players, will be short lived.
The Blu-Ray will not have the lifespan of the record, eight tracks, cassettes, CDs or even the VHS. While Blu-Ray is quickly killing off the DVD, it is no match for the digital age. Much like the short life of the Beta movies, the Blu-Ray will likely fade out of existence within the next five or ten years. There will be, just as there always have been for previous media formats, many holdouts who cling to their DVD and Blu Ray collections, but in the end these will gather dust on the shelf as society moves forward. Eventually the Blu-Ray will sit in the nostalgia section of the used stores along side the records, cassettes, eight tracks, and CD of the media eras of the past.
Digital will be king as I mentioned within a few years for two simple reasons. The first reason digital will become king is ease of access. Most digital is downloaded over the Internet. Even if a consumer does not have Internet access, it's not unlikely that he can find it in a coffee shop, store, public area or library. Some cities even offer it almost everywhere now. The convenience of being able to purchase, download, and instantly watch will be king in the digital world.
The second reason that digital will kill the Blu-Ray is cost. To give an example, I was recently searching for a Dr. Who special for the family to watch. I went to four different stores and two Red Box locations and could not find it to purchase or rent. Finally, at the last store I went to, I found it for an overpriced amount of $22.95. I simply was not prepared to pay that for a 77 minute episode of the good Doctor. After arriving at home, I pulled up the PlayStation account through the game system and found that the episode was available for sale in the digital form. I had three options. I could by the standard definition (sd) for $7.99, the high definition (hd) for $9.99, or both the sd and hd for $9.99. The sd could be moved to other media devices and the had could be viewed through the PlayStation. Since I wanted to be able to watch it in other locations as well, I went for the sd and hd at $9.99. It seemed like a no brainer since I received both for what would have cost $17.98 separately. At that cost, I saved $12.96 over the Blu-Ray version I finally found in the store, and I could have saved the cost of driving around looking for the Blu-Ray by simply purchasing it at home.
Needless to say, I quickly scanned the cost of other movies and found a similar trend. When someone considers the options such as Netflix, PlayStation, Amazon, and dozens of others offering the digital version of movies to watch or own at a cheaper cost, it doesn't take long to figure out that the days of the Blu Ray are limited. I predict that the CD, DVD, and Blu-Ray do not have much longer in this digital world before they are regulated to Ebay and the used stores where they will have a long life of reuse and a new venue of special machines designed to help convert them to digital along with their vinyl cousins.